What is scored

Only forecasts with explicit resolution criteria and resolved outcomes enter the public Brier score. Active operational forecasts may remain authenticated or delayed.

What is withheld

Operationally sensitive active forecasts, live case details, raw evidence and subscriber-specific reasoning stay out of the public surface.

Calibration

Forecasts are grouped by probability bin. The observed rate in each bin shows whether the platform is under-confident, over-confident or well calibrated.

Impact estimates

Economic impact is published as an uncertainty range in EUR with assumptions, limitations and methodology version, never as a precise loss claim.